Thursday, May 06, 2010

More Greece

I have a lot of confidence in what Simon JOHNSON says, and he and the other fellow say it very well here. There is a “tail” on the Greece issue that few are addressing because it is not happening today. That’s the reaction of both the Greek people and its economy to what is being put in place. We may not know this for quite a while, and so there could be a brief period of false confidence, especially if demonstrations are kept modestly under control and therefore do not draw big headlines.

As I have said several times, the complexity of this situation is immense. No one can wave a single magic wand and deal with it, even if that were imaginable. That’s the crux of why I think this is both such a dangerous time with the prospects of zany volatility. Actions and reactions of perceived significance will be coming, I think, from people in the street, people in elected offices, people in appointed offices, voters, bankers, labor unions, retirees, youth, and many more – any of which can have a dramatic impact on any or all of the others.

This Moody’s report certainly sounds like a fair view of the current situation in my view, to be affected next – I think – by the results of the British election (to be known late tonight and tomorrow, with much to happen beyond the mere poll results in terms of how a new government is formed and how it is perceived), and by the uncertainty over how the Greek population and its government is going to come off the events of yesterday.

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